FIA WEC, 6h Nurburgring weather - Updated


The opening day of on track action at Nurburgring will likely have some rain. A cold front will be moving across the area in the morning, but a high chance of rain will continue through the day as the upper level trough moves through. There is pretty good model agreement on this general pattern, so I have a high chance of rain at 70%. Rain amounts at this time appear to be between 0.15 and 0.3 inches, or between 4 and 8 mm.

The upper level trough will be east of the area by Saturday, and a weak ridge will build over the area, so I think it will be a dry day with a mix of sun and clouds. Sunday is probably the biggest question mark in the forecast. The ridge will be weakening through the day, and a weak upper level disturbance is expected to be crossing England and the Netherlands. With weak features like this, the models usually have a harder time figuring out their location and timing. I don't have a lot of confidence on Sunday's forecast, so I have just a slight chance of rain forecast for now with low impact on the race. We'll see how this evolves over the next few days, so check back for updates and follow @Race4caster on Twitter.

UPDATE

Not much has changed in my thinking for the forecast for Nurburgring this weekend, but some of the finer details are coming into better focus.

The chance of rain in Friday is expected to be mainly in the late afternoon, probably moving into the area between 3 and 5 pm, with the bulk of it falling between 5 and 7 pm CEST. Rain amounts do not look particularly heavy, perhaps around a tenth of an inch, or between 2 and 3 mm. Saturday will have cloudy skies but the rain will be well east of the area by then. With very little sunshine, high temperatures will only be in the upper 60s or lower 20s C. Sunday looks like a very nice day, with partly cloudy skies and temperatures warming into the upper 70s (mid 20s C). The slight chance of rain that I had in the previous forecast is gone, as that chance of rain will hold off until Monday.